LLC Russian Railways has approved its business plan for 2026. The planned freight volume target is set at 1.1 billion tons—only 1.5% higher than the 2025 result, which in itself indicates a lack of growth ambitions.
However, actual operational data paint a much worse picture. In January 2026, freight traffic on the Russian Railways’ network fell to 89.3 million tons, 4% lower than in January 2025. Freight turnover declined even more sharply, down 11.6%, due to a drop in the average transport distance—a direct indicator of weakening economic activity within the country.
The deepest declines were recorded in scrap metal transport (-43.2%), cement (-30%), ferrous metals (-14.5%), and coal (-8.7%). These segments traditionally form the backbone of Russian Railways’ freight base, and their contraction directly reflects a downturn in the coal and metallurgical sectors, as well as stagnation in the construction industry. Local growth was observed only in export-oriented routes to Asia: the Southeast Railway (+10.5%), Trans-Baikal (+6.6%), and East Siberian (+3.2%), highlighting the weakness of domestic demand.
Amid worsening key indicators, Russian Railways’ is preparing to issue yuan-denominated exchange-traded bonds worth approximately $244 million. The tentative placement date is February 11, the maturity is 3 years and 7 months, with an annual rate of up to 8%. This comes at a time when the company’s total debt to creditors already exceeds $44 billion.
The real trend in Russian Railways’ freight traffic increasingly signals a structural decline in key sectors—metallurgy, construction, and coal—and chronic weakness in domestic demand, which cannot be offset by formal growth plans or targeted export traffic to Asia.
