Putin has quite a few escalation scenarios, but none of them are encouraging

Belarus. Orenburg. Kazakhstan. Putin’s next war

Main technological problems of Ukraine in the war

Crimea is becoming not an asset, but a bill that Russia is forced to pay every day

The war continues either until “checkmate” or until the chessboard is overturned by a “black swan”

The most realistic scenario today is not a rapid de-occupation of Crimea, but its gradual military-logistical exhaustion

The era of vague bureaucracy has long been dead

When victory becomes impossible, propaganda begins to redefine what victory means

The current “telethon” of returning awards is a reaction rather than a response

Lukashenko now faces a very clear choice