The U.S. Intelligence Community, in its annual report “The 2026 Annual Threat Assessment,” identifies strategic competition with China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea as the primary challenge for the United States, while immediate threats stem from transnational crime, drug trafficking, migration processes, and terrorism. The document was prepared under the coordination of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence and the National Intelligence Council, with contributions from the Central Intelligence Agency, National Security Agency, Defense Intelligence Agency, and Federal Bureau of Investigation.
The report states that the global security environment in 2026 is characterized by fragmentation of the international system and a record number of armed conflicts since World War II. Challenges span military, technological, economic, and informational domains. China is identified as the main geopolitical competitor to the United States, Russia as the primary military threat, while Iran and North Korea are seen as sources of asymmetric risks.
The authors emphasize the transformation of warfare through the combination of high-tech systems and low-cost strike capabilities, particularly unmanned aerial vehicles, which is reshaping the balance of power and requiring rapid military adaptation. The modernization of nuclear arsenals and new delivery systems are lowering the threshold for the use of weapons of mass destruction, while the erosion of arms control regimes — particularly driven by Russia — is increasing global risks.
Cyber and space domains are becoming distinct arenas of confrontation. China demonstrates the highest level of activity in cyberspace, while Russia, Iran, and North Korea use cyberattacks for intelligence gathering, sabotage, and financing. Technological competition in artificial intelligence and quantum computing is shaping a new balance of power, creating long-term challenges for information security. AI is already integrated into military processes, and quantum technologies have the potential to undermine modern encryption systems.
Global instability remains fragmented, with hotspots concentrated in the Indo-Pacific region, Europe, the Middle East, and Latin America. Compared to the 2025 assessment, the list of threats remains unchanged, but their intensity and complexity have increased, confirming the deepening systemic competition among major powers.
