Trump will make maximum efforts to sign a memorandum with Iran on a phased cessation of the war.
On May 13 he is scheduled to travel to Beijing for a meeting with Xi. And if a memorandum is not signed, the trip will be without “cards in hand”.
And this is an extremely uncomfortable position for Trump.
He urgently needs to show some result and declare a “victory”.
Going to Beijing while the war is still ongoing is a failure. Not going and postponing the meeting again would mean a “loss of face”.
Therefore, an opportunity window opens for Iran to maximize the achievement of its goals in this war.
The memorandum may include partial lifting of sanctions on Iran and the unfreezing of its assets.
And if you are told that this is a “US victory”, consider the following analogy: in a hypothetical military escalation between Russia and the EU, sanctions on Russia are lifted and its assets are unfrozen.
Whose “victory” would that be in such a case? The EU’s? Even if European armies’ missiles destroyed several Russian factories.
So remember this analogy every time you are told about a “US victory over Iran”.
What can Tehran offer the US?
Apparently, a fig leaf to cover up the defeat of the US and Israel, which clearly did not achieve their key objectives in this war: the removal of the Iranian political regime, and the destruction of Iran’s nuclear and missile programs.
The regime in Tehran has not been overthrown and has only become stronger. The missile program will not be shut down.
The fig leaf is Iran’s commitment to a moratorium on uranium enrichment for 5 or 12 years, and a promise not to enrich uranium above a certain level.
Why can Iran “promise” this?
Because no one will be able to truly verify it—there are no real monitoring or verification mechanisms. And Tehran knows it. Washington knows it. And Israel knows it.
At the same time, Iran understands that after Trump leaves office, it will be a very long time before the US has a president willing to start a new war in the Persian Gulf.
Even if the new president is J.D. Vance. Especially if the new president is J.D. Vance.
