In 2026, Ukraine’s sunflower oil production may reach around 4 million tons, which is below pre-war levels but sufficient to meet the country’s domestic demand.
This was reported by Svitlana Lytvyn, head of the analytical department at the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club (UCAB).
“Before the war, we produced 5–6 million tons of sunflower oil. With the current resource base, about 4 million tons will be produced this year. This volume covers domestic demand, which is 400–500 thousand tons, but it significantly reduces export potential and the opportunity to bring additional revenue into the country,” Lytvyn said.
According to her estimates, before the full-scale war, Ukrainian farmers harvested about 16 million tons of sunflower seeds. In 2025, this figure was only 10 million tons, and in 2024, 11 million tons of sunflower seeds were harvested.
The reduction in the raw material base is partly due to decreased sowing areas caused by the occupation of some territories, primarily in southern regions where this crop was traditionally grown.
The expert noted that the rise in sunflower oil prices is primarily driven by the reduced sunflower seed harvest, as well as Russian attacks on infrastructure and export restrictions. Due to limited supply, a price decrease in the near future is unlikely.
At the same time, UCAB emphasizes the close connection between sunflower oil prices and the global market prices of soybean, rapeseed, and palm oils.
Lytvyn also noted that Ukraine is trying to increase processing of other oilseeds. According to optimistic forecasts, this year approximately 500,000 tons of soybean and rapeseed oil may be produced. However, these volumes still do not compensate for the losses in sunflower oil production.
