Rising costs for raw materials and energy have led to an average 40% increase in the price of bread and flour in Ukraine over the past two years, reports the Union "Millers of Ukraine".
According to an analytical report published on the APK-Inform platform, the price growth trend has been consistently high: in 2024, bread prices increased by 20–22%, and in 2025, by an additional 19–23%. A similar 40% increase over the two-year period was recorded for wheat flour.
According to the Union, the price of premium wheat bread rose by 44% over the year — reaching UAH 63.5/kg, rye bread increased by 45% to UAH 50.6/kg, and white loaf (baton) went up by 34% to UAH 30.9/kg.
“Currently, the actual selling prices of flour are 10–15% lower than the declared prices and are practically equal to production costs. With an average cost of Class 2 wheat at UAH 10,300 per ton and processing costs not below UAH 2,500 per ton, a 3% profitability is a significant achievement for millers,” the report notes.
Experts point out that, unlike bakeries, which can offset the low profitability of social-grade bread with premium or specialty products, millers lack this opportunity due to the small sales volumes of packaged flour.
At the same time, the “Millers of Ukraine” highlighted a growing trend in the country for home baking.
“People are increasingly baking bread at home. It is much cheaper, tastier, and fashionable,” the industry association said.
Additional factors are forming on the global market:
- The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) reported that global wheat prices have fallen for the third consecutive month, mainly due to reduced international demand and confirmed large harvests in Russia and other key producing countries in Europe and North America.
- The International Grains Council (IGC) estimates the global wheat harvest for 2025–2026 at a record 819 million tons. At the same time, an 18% increase in the EU wheat harvest is expected, reaching 140.4 million tons.
- Harvesting in Western Canada has accelerated, with production forecasted to rise to 36.6 million tons. Analysts predict that Australia’s wheat harvest will reach 33.8 million tons, which is 3.3 million tons higher than previously estimated.
- Argentina is preparing for a record wheat harvest, expected to match the 23 million tons of the 2021/22 marketing year.
The current and expected situation on the global market, as well as conditions in Ukraine, allow hope that one of the main factors — the cost of wheat — will not drive an increase in flour prices.
Additionally, there is a bonus factor: the high quality of this year’s wheat harvest, which will positively influence the quality indicators of flour.
