Russia’s residential construction market is deteriorating. By the end of 2026, the volume of projects with postponed completion dates could reach a historic high of 16.2 million square meters, while total housing commissioning may decline to 41 million square meters — 20% below the peak levels of 2023.
The country’s five largest construction companies have already delayed the delivery of 12.7% of their projects — more than 1.95 million square meters of housing — compared to just 3.2% a year ago. Among a number of smaller developers, the share of delayed projects exceeds 20% of their portfolios, several times higher than the acceptable norm.
The reasons include expensive loans, labor shortages, volatile material prices, and a collapse of the mortgage market. To survive, developers are cutting contractors and reducing personnel costs. Investment in real estate in 2026 could fall by another 30%.
Deputy Prime Minister Marat Khusnullin warned that if annual mortgage issuance drops below $52 billion, the market will face collapse. In 2025, $54 billion in mortgages were issued, of which $43 billion came under subsidized programs — meaning the margin of safety is minimal.
Under these conditions, between 19% and 30% of developers are at risk of bankruptcy. The most likely scenario is a wave of acquisitions, project freezes, and rising social tensions among equity holders who have already invested in housing that has yet to be completed.
