Russia does not intend to end the militarization of its economy even after the war against Ukraine is over, Egils Zviedris, director of the Constitution Protection Bureau (SAB), said on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference, according to LSM.
According to the head of Latvian intelligence, Moscow’s future aggressiveness will directly depend on how the conflict ends, whether it is frozen, and whether international sanctions remain in place. Zviedris emphasized that lifting sanctions could become a key factor enabling the Kremlin to restore and expand its military capabilities much more quickly.
Despite Russia having operational plans for an attack on Latvia and other Baltic countries, there is currently no direct military threat to the region. As the SAB head noted, developing invasion scenarios is standard practice for Russian military headquarters and does not necessarily indicate an imminent real attack. Nevertheless, Moscow continues to actively create threats in other areas. In particular, since 2022, there has been a sharp increase in cyberattacks aimed at undermining the security of Western countries. Intelligence agencies have also noted attempts by the Kremlin to destabilize the situation by exploiting dissatisfaction among Russian-speaking populations in the Baltic states.
The Constitution Protection Bureau states that overall risks for Europe and Latvia have increased significantly. While last year’s forecasts suggested a five-year horizon for the growth of the military threat, analysts now estimate the timeframe at two to three years.
Egils Zviedris added that the agency does not attach importance to specific dates, as the situation depends on many variables. However, intelligence agencies urge not to entertain illusions and to prepare for the long-term reality that the threat from Russia will only continue to grow.
