Main image: Maj. Ivo Peets and Commander of the Estonian Defense Forces Andrus Merilo at the launch of the Defense Forces Yearbook 2026. Source: EDF/ Ardi Hallismaa
Russia could restore its combat readiness as early as 2027, and Estonia’s level of readiness must increase rapidly. This is stated in the annual report of the Estonian Defence Forces, as reported by ERR.
Despite significant losses in Ukraine, Russia continues to carry out military reforms, the report says. According to the Commander of the Estonian Defence Forces, Andrus Merilo, current trends indicate that “the war in Ukraine will not end in a way that leaves Russia unable to conduct military operations against us.”
After the end of the war in Ukraine, Russian society and the economy will be fully oriented toward war, and Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin’s hope to remain in power until the end of his life “depends on whether he manages to keep the country in a state of war,” the report states.
According to Merilo, this means that after exiting the war in Ukraine, Russia will restore the combat readiness of its armed forces while actively searching for new targets and preparing them through destabilization activities and campaigns.
“In my assessment, 2027 is the year when Russia’s combat readiness will be restored, and if it then sees a favorable opportunity somewhere to use its armed forces, it will do so,” Merilo believes.
It is noted that as a result, Estonia must also achieve a higher level of readiness, which includes better training and more modern equipment. The commander added that before the security situation improves, it will likely deteriorate further.
“This does not mean that we should immediately assume a direct military attack, but in the current security situation we cannot exclude any options,” Merilo explained.
He noted that traditional readiness is no longer sufficient and that deterrence capabilities must be strengthened. This means being ready to stop an adversary at the very beginning of a conflict and, if necessary, defeat them.
The annual report also states that the Estonian Defence Forces must integrate Ukraine’s wartime experience. One of the key lessons of recent years is that lethal effects can be achieved with significantly cheaper means than before.
