The war with Iran has become this year’s black swan not only for us, but for Trump himself. He could hardly have imagined events developing this way — especially that he would come so close to losing the war. And here is why.
Trump’s colossal mistake was his decision not to attack the Houthis last week. He did not want to become involved in another war in Yemen. But in reality, the Houthis, as Iranian proxies, are part of the same conflict with Iran. As a result, Iran can now be said to have gained partial control over two strategic waterways: the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. This has sent fuel prices through the roof.
The astronomical price of diesel has pushed Trump’s approval rating to its lowest level for a US president since the Second World War. In September, his approval fell to 32%.
This is happening ahead of the congressional elections, which he is now certain to lose; the only question is by how much. The Democrats, meanwhile, oppose the war with Iran and favour a diplomatic settlement.
Iran knows this. It therefore has little reason to reach any agreement before the US elections take place. If the Democrats win, Congress will rein Trump in and limit his “cowboy ambitions”. As a result, any subsequent agreement is unlikely to be reached on terms favourable to the United States and its allies in the Middle East.
To a considerable extent, therefore, it can be argued that Trump has lost the war with Iran.
For us, only one thing really matters: that this war ends as quickly as possible. Because the duration of our own war depends on it.
