The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) continues to greatly exaggerate the extent of Russian advances across the frontline to construct a false narrative of Russian battlefield progress for domestic and international audiences. The unusual MoD statement comes in the midst of Russian State Duma elections and shortly before the convening of the United Nations General Assembly in New York. The Russian MoD claimed on September 19 that Russian forces have seized over 5,300 square kilometers and more than 220 settlements in Ukraine since the start of 2026, including over 670 square kilometers and 27 settlements so far in September 2026.
ISW has observed evidence to assess that Russian forces have seized only 147.7 square kilometers and 40 settlements, but have lost a net of 20 settlements in 2026. Including areas into which Russian forces have infiltrated but do not control brings the total Russian gains to 718.8 square kilometers this year, still far below the Russian MoD’s September 19 claims. ISW has observed evidence to assess that Ukrainian forces, on the other hand, have liberated at least 972.56 square kilometers and 60 settlements in 2026. The Russian MoD’s September 19 claims are part of a longstanding Kremlin effort to use aggrandized claims of battlefield advances to convince Ukraine and its partners that Ukrainian defenses will collapse and that Ukraine should surrender in the face of an allegedly inevitable Russian victory.
Exaggerated Russian claims likely also result from the culture of pervasive lying within the Russian military. Ukrainian forces have, in fact, successfully contested both the strategic and the operational initiative since late 2025, having held Russian forces to near-zero gains since March 2026 and having conducted successful counterattacks that have liberated significant amounts of territory in the Kupyansk, Oleksandrivka, and Lyman directions.
The Russian MoD also tried to deny Ukrainian successes in the Lyman direction by presenting an inaccurate picture of the battlefield that denies the ample evidence provided by Russian milbloggers, Ukrainian sources, and geolocated footage. The Russian MoD’s claims were a response to a growing number of Ukrainian officials’ and Russian milbloggers’ reports about Ukrainian successes north of Lyman over the past months during Operation Vivaldi.
The Russian MoD claimed that the Russian Western Grouping of Forces (GoF) is successfully conducting combat operations in the Lyman direction and that Ukraine is spreading lies about this part of the battlefield. The Russian MoD claimed that small Ukrainian assault groups are unsuccessfully trying to penetrate Russian lines in the area. The Russian MoD implied that Russian forces have advanced much further northwest of Lyman, claiming that Russian forces are attacking to seize Oskil, Krymky, and Studenok. Ukrainian forces have largely leveled the frontline along the Zherebets River north of Lyman, however, leaving Oskil, Krymky, and Studenok 22 to 37 kilometers from the current assessed Russian forward line of own troops (FLOT). The Russian MoD also claimed that Russian forces are clearing Lyman and Svyatohirsk, implying that Russian forces have already seized these towns. Ukrainian military officials have recently definitively disproven Russian President Vladimir Putin’s September 1 claim that Russian forces had seized Svyatohirsk, and the town is currently 25 kilometers from the assessed Russian FLOT.
Similarly, Russian forces have conducted limited infiltrations into Lyman but have failed to consolidate any of those positions.
