Direct and projected losses to Ukraine’s economy resulting from Russia’s full-scale invasion, measured in lost revenue, are estimated at $1.7 trillion, while losses in value added amount to $0.6 trillion, according to the analytical center of the Kyiv School of Economics (KSE).
KSE analysts clarified that the updated assessment covers the period from February 24, 2022, to December 31, 2025, and includes forecasts through the end of 2026.
Compared to previous data as of July 2024, the estimate of lost revenue increased by $536 billion (from $1.164 trillion), and value-added losses rose by $214.3 billion (from $385.7 billion).
“The increase is linked to an updated methodology, the use of new company- and sector-level data, as well as the extension of the analysis period — it now covers losses through the end of 2026,” KSE explained.
According to the report, value-added losses have already exceeded Ukraine’s pre-war GDP for 2021 by more than three times. The most affected sectors are productive industries: trade ($696.3 billion), industry together with construction and services ($645.6 billion), and agriculture ($81.9 billion). Losses to key infrastructure amount to $75.3 billion in the energy sector and $60.2 billion in transport.
The war has also caused significant additional expenditures, including in the housing sector ($26.8 billion, primarily rent), demining ($24.6 billion), and the dismantling of destroyed facilities ($13 billion).
Government spending on social support has increased by $7.5 billion.
The assessment was conducted by the analytical team of KSE Institute in cooperation with the Ministry for Development of Communities and Territories of Ukraine, in collaboration with other relevant government bodies and the National Bank of Ukraine, and in line with the World Bank methodology.
