Independent analysts and volunteer researchers from the Conflict Intelligence Team (CIT) report that April 2026 became the second deadliest month for civilians since the start of the war. At least 309 people were killed and 2,228 injured across both sides of the front line. Only July 2025 recorded higher losses.
CIT notes that most civilian casualties continue to occur on Ukrainian-controlled territory.
Researchers also warn that 2026 is on track to surpass 2025 as the deadliest year for civilians if the war continues, as every month this year has already exceeded the same period in previous years.
Analysts highlight a sharp escalation in long-range aerial attacks by both Russia and Ukraine. Russia’s use of “Shahed”-type drones (known in Russia as “Geran”) has increased significantly, from around 1,000–1,200 per week at the end of 2025 to more than 2,000, and at times up to 3,000 weekly in 2026.
Some attacks now last more than 20 hours, often involving daytime strikes when civilian exposure is higher, increasing casualties and strain on air defense systems.
Ukraine has also expanded its long-range drone capabilities, and in some cases is reported to match or exceed Russian launch numbers. However, analysts note that both sides’ increased use of drones inevitably raises civilian risk due to interception debris, electronic warfare effects, and navigation errors.
At the same time, Ukraine is facing pressure on its air defense systems, particularly shortages of interceptor missiles for Patriot systems, which are also needed to counter ballistic missile threats.
Researchers conclude that so-called “unilateral ceasefires” announced during the war have had no measurable impact on reducing violence. Instead, they describe them as political gestures that do not change conditions on the ground.
