The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has downgraded its economic growth forecast for Ukraine as intensified Russian attacks weigh on exports and economic activity.
The revised projections were published in the EBRD’s latest Regional Economic Prospects report released on Thursday, according to Ukrinform.
Under the new forecast, Ukraine’s GDP is expected to grow by 1.5% in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027. Compared with the EBRD’s June projections, the forecasts were lowered by 0.7 and 1.5 percentage points respectively.
Russian attacks on infrastructure and vessels in the Black Sea have caused severe disruptions to grain shipments, further complicating Ukrainian exports. Low water levels on the Danube have created an additional challenge by reducing the capacity of Ukraine’s main alternative export route.
According to the EBRD, the Black Sea blockade has also amplified the negative impact of high fertiliser prices.
The bank noted that disruptions to wheat supplies have pushed prices up by more than a third, with elevated prices expected to persist until 2028.
At the same time, harvest volumes have remained stable. Outside Central Europe, the impact of drought has been below the average recorded since 2010.
Russian attacks in the Black Sea have also reduced Ukrainian exports to their lowest level since April 2022. The EBRD estimates that Ukraine could lose $5.5 billion in revenues from exports of wheat, oilseeds and metals this year, equivalent to 2.5% of GDP.
Overall, economies across the EBRD regions grew by 3.1% in the first half of 2026, compared with 3.6% for the whole of 2025. The bank attributed the slowdown to higher energy prices, supply disruptions and the near-stagnation of Ukraine’s economy amid intensified Russian attacks.
