Second day of Operation “Lion’s Roar.”
The pace is excellent. In Operation “The People as a Lion,” air superiority over western Iran was achieved in 48 hours; now it’s happening in 24. Stand-in strikes, short-range attacks, and strikes with heavier bomb loads than stand-off long-range fire are being carried out over Tehran. Operation “Tornado” targets high-priority government and military sites in Tehran: operations command, intelligence management, aviation command, internal security forces, television, etc. Overall, more than 2,000 munitions have already been used, with over 700 sorties — both roughly half of the totals in “The People as a Lion.” Thirty waves in total targeted air defense and missile systems, with up to 100 aircraft per sortie — not yesterday’s record of 200, but that’s not needed every day. Sixty missile positions, fire systems, radars, command posts, etc. have been struck.
Main division of zones with the Americans: we operate in western and central Iran, the U.S. on the south, along the coast, and in the east. Zones are not exclusive; sometimes forces cross into each other’s areas. So far, the U.S. has hit more than 1,000 targets, also progressing well: headquarters, communications, air defenses, missiles, ships, etc. Notably, four B-2 strikes targeted fortified underground missile storage. Impressive.
Cooperation is at a high level, both in information exchange and logistics. The U.S. brought fifty tanker aircraft; last time we had only a few airborne. Pilots now say “gas stations in the sky at every step, fly up and refuel.” A great advantage.
Iranian missile launches over two days have been less than half of the amount during the first two days of “The People as a Lion.” Most volleys are 2–5 missiles with short intervals; only once over 20 missiles. Partly due to strikes on launch and command chains, partly to conserve resources — best not to relax. Interception percentage remains standard. About fifty drones shot down, insignificant.
Once again shown: nothing protects against a direct hit except a government bunker. In Beit Shemesh, nine were killed in a shelter. That’s why following Rear Command instructions is crucial: a direct hit is as rare as winning the lottery, while explosive waves, debris, and fragments are effectively mitigated by shelters, and statistics favor them heavily.
Several hundred missiles and drones have been launched toward Arab countries. Although interception rates are good, outside U.S. bases there have been enough hits on civilian targets that the UAE recalled its ambassador from Tehran, and the Gulf Cooperation Council, in an emergency meeting of foreign ministers, stated readiness to act against Iranian aggression if it continues. If Saudis and Emiratis also start bombing Iran, that would be an interesting bonus, but it remains to be seen how prepared they are to move from words to action. Iran, in that case, would likely respond by targeting headquarters, oil infrastructure, and more.
European nations are also irritated by Iranian strikes “Somali-style.” After missiles toward Cyprus, Britain allowed the U.S. to use its bases. Britain, France, and Germany jointly declared that they will respond. Again, it remains to be seen if this will move from statements to action.
In the Strait of Hormuz, the Iranians are playing a comical game: “Stop or I’ll fire!” — “I stop” — “I fire.” Blockade, no blockade, introduce, remove — a tanker was fired on amid the confusion, then allowed again; shipowners self-regulate to stay safe.
Three missiles from Lebanon. If Hezbollah decided to get involved this time, our plans are ready, both air and, depending on the situation, ground operations.
Overall, the operation is progressing well and ahead of schedule, but much work remains. Trump says “four weeks or less,” but realistically the war plan will show the timeline. For now, it’s best to focus on what can be measured and counted; all clandestine movements with opposition members, revolutionaries, spies, and other “sealed wagons” will be evident later.
