In its September forecast for the 2026/2027 marketing year, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) raised its forecast for wheat production in Ukraine by a further 0.6 million tonnes to 26.0 million tonnes. At the same time, the export forecast was reduced by 1.0 million tonnes to 12.5 million tonnes, while ending stocks were increased by 1.3 million tonnes to 6.1 million tonnes.
The Ukrainian Agribusiness Club (UCAB) reported this.
The USDA attributed the improved production estimate to record yields as the harvest draws to a close. The lower export forecast is linked to weak shipment volumes in August and logistical difficulties caused by the war in the Black Sea region.
On the global wheat market, the production forecast was raised by 3.1 million tonnes to 822.4 million tonnes, primarily due to improved prospects in Australia and Canada. At the same time, the global export forecast was reduced by almost 0.9 million tonnes to 211.8 million tonnes, while ending stocks were increased by 3.0 million tonnes to 276.3 million tonnes. The September wheat balance has improved somewhat in terms of global supply, although lower exports from Ukraine and Russia are partially limiting available supply on the international market.
For corn, the estimates for Ukraine remained considerably more stable this month. The USDA maintained its production forecast at 31.8 million tonnes and its export forecast at 22.0 million tonnes. At the same time, ending stocks were increased by 0.6 million tonnes to 5.46 million tonnes, mainly due to an upward revision of beginning stocks. Following a significant improvement in the crop estimate in August, the USDA currently sees no reason to further revise Ukraine’s corn production or export potential.
The global corn balance, by contrast, has become somewhat tighter. The global production forecast was reduced by almost 7.9 million tonnes to 1,291.0 million tonnes, largely due to a deterioration in the US crop outlook as well as lower forecasts for a number of other countries. Global exports were reduced by 0.4 million tonnes to 210.1 million tonnes, while ending stocks were cut by 2.6 million tonnes to 272.1 million tonnes. Analysts say this reduces the buffer in the global corn market in the 2026/2027 marketing year.
