The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) expects real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2026 at 1.8%, compared with a projected 2% in the October Inflation Report.
“Increasing harvests and investment in the reconstruction of infrastructure and the defense sector will support further economic recovery. However, the worsening situation in the energy sector will continue to constrain business activity for some time. As a result, real GDP in 2026 will grow moderately, by 1.8%,” the regulator said in a statement on Thursday.
The NBU also noted that at the end of 2025 the economy picked up due to more active harvesting, including as a result of the shift of the harvest into the fourth quarter, as well as increased budget spending. At the same time, due to disruptions to logistics and a larger-than-expected electricity deficit in recent months, the NBU downgraded its estimate of real GDP growth in 2025 to 1.8% from 1.9%.
As for the outlook for the following years, the NBU expects economic growth to accelerate to 3–4% in 2027–2028. Factors supporting this improvement include a gradual stabilization of the energy sector and an increase in private investment.
