Ukraine’s real gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow by 1.8–2.5% in 2026, compared with 1.8–2.2% growth last year, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its new four-year Extended Fund Facility (EFF) program.
According to the IMF’s forecasts published on its website, inflation this year is expected to decline to 7.5% from 8% last year, the unemployment rate to 10.2% from 11.6%, and real income growth to 12.0% from 22.6%.
The IMF expects budget revenues as a percentage of GDP to fall to 43.8% this year from 51.2% last year, while expenditures will decrease to 62.2% from 74.5%, and the budget deficit to 19.3% of GDP from 23.6%.
At the same time, public debt is projected to rise this year from 108.7% of GDP to 122.6% of GDP, compared with 89.7% at the beginning of 2025 and 77.7% at the end of 2022.
The IMF also forecasts that the current account deficit will widen to 19.1% of GDP this year, up from 15% of GDP last year and 8% of GDP in 2024.
Meanwhile, thanks to substantial external financial assistance, the Fund expects Ukraine’s international reserves to grow to $65.5 billion this year from $57.3 billion, compared with $43.8 billion at the end of 2024 and $28.5 billion at the end of 2022, while foreign direct investment is expected to increase only slightly, to $1.6 billion from $1.1 billion last year.
The Fund also forecasts a slowdown in “broad money” growth to 11% from 12.7% last year, and credit to the private sector to 13.4% from 22.5%.
