Brilliant operation, precise hits. But amid the special effects, commentators (especially in Ukraine) are missing the main point.
The Trump administration launched a war for regime change without any idea of what would happen the day after the government in Tehran falls. Yesterday he stated, “We gave you what you asked for,” and urged Iranians to finish the regime change.
But what if the result of an uprising by unarmed people against an armed, even decapitated, regime is an even bloodier massacre or a civil war? What if even more radical clans come to power? The depth of the ayatollahs’ regime is enormous.
Who better than Ukrainians to know that after coups, those who come to power are not the ones marching in demonstrations, but those who have money, weapons, and organization.
I keep asking myself: what if the course of history fills with chaos instead of freedom? The long-term consequences could be far worse than a short, flashy shooting display. Did the administration think about that? It seems not.
In an Axios interview on February 28, Trump mentioned only two scenarios: a quick operation over 2–3 days, resulting in Iran agreeing to halt nuclear and missile development, or the United States seizing everything, including a land occupation, risking getting drawn into a new perpetual war. I hope this is just another display of bravado and overconfidence.
So, is there currently a best way to end the war “cleanly”? What is the endgame? Exit quickly and abandon maximalist goals. Destroying the regime is the ultimate maximum in Iran’s conditions. Focus instead on specific, limited military or diplomatic objectives.
The key is to prevent the mission from leading to the complete collapse of a 90-million-person country.
As I write, I understand that considering regional destabilization as a danger is seen as betrayal by Ukrainian commentators. Here, media hype outweighs logic. Break the plates, I’ll pay.
Let me remind you: the responsibility for destabilization will fall on the United States. The cost will be paid by Ukrainians: fewer missile supplies and greater U.S. focus on the Middle East rather than Europe. Every missile fired over Dubai or Tel Aviv to intercept an Iranian Shahed is a missile that will not arrive in Kyiv.
So the ideal outcome for both Trump and us: complete strikes on infrastructure, declare victory, and quickly start negotiations with those who remain in power.
Because there is another scenario Trump chooses to remain silent about: ending up with a 90-million-person Somalia with nuclear technology next door.
