Latvian security officials have warned that Russia’s behavior is becoming less predictable, with a rising chance of misjudgments and unintended escalation stemming from Moscow’s current approach to foreign policy, reports bb.lv.
The assessment, issued by the Constitution Protection Bureau, comes amid an increase in drone-related incidents in the region and what Riga describes as an intensifying wave of disinformation directed at the Baltic states. Authorities say these developments form part of a broader pressure campaign targeting Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia, as well as their Western partners.
According to the report, Russia’s perception of the West has hardened in recent years, driven in part by growing isolation among the country’s political elite. This, the Latvian service argues, has narrowed the Kremlin’s decision-making framework and led to interpretations of international events that are increasingly detached from external reality.
As a result, Russian actions are seen as less predictable, with decisions shaped more by internal assumptions than by actual developments abroad. This raises the risk of miscalculations that could unintentionally affect regional security.
The security service also points to recent drone alerts in Latvia’s Latgale region as part of a wider pattern of concern, alongside false claims circulated by Russian intelligence suggesting Ukrainian military activity in Baltic territory. Riga has rejected these allegations as unfounded.
While Latvian authorities assess that the likelihood of a direct military attack remains low in the near term, they emphasize that Russia’s current activities are primarily aimed at creating uncertainty, exerting psychological pressure, and discouraging continued Baltic support for Ukraine.
