Main image: Hanno Pevkur. Photo: MICHAL CIZEK/AFP.
Ukraine is a strategic partner for Estonia, and its experience directly influences the development of the Baltic country’s military strategy.
This was stated by Estonian Defence Minister Hanno Pevkur at the international security conference GLOBSEC in Prague.
“For Estonia, Ukraine is not just a recipient of support — it is a strategic partner. The experience of the Ukrainian front directly affects how we develop doctrine, train our troops, and organize procurement. Increasingly, Estonian companies are working side by side with Ukrainian defense firms because Ukraine has become one of the world’s most important centers of defense innovation,” Pevkur said.
He stressed that supporting Ukraine is not charity, but a strategic investment in Europe’s security, emphasizing that European defense investments and support for Ukraine are directly interconnected. In this regard, Pevkur noted that the combined military assistance to Ukraine from the Nordic-Baltic countries alone amounts to nearly €2.5 billion this year.
“Every Russian tank destroyed in Ukraine means one less threat to European security. Every intercepted missile means one less danger for our citizens,” the Estonian official stated.
According to him, Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine has caused a fundamental strategic shift in Europe, but the goal has not yet been achieved: Europe has moved from complacency to a sense of urgency, but has not yet moved from urgency to full readiness. While declarations matter in diplomacy, deterrence is operational and measured in stockpiles, production lines, readiness levels, infrastructure, command structures, political will, and more.
“Ultimately, deterrence exists only when the adversary believes that Europe can act faster, produce faster, mobilize faster, and sustain conflict longer than before,” the Estonian defence minister stressed.
He recalled that EU member states spent around €370 billion on defense in 2023 — nearly 20% more than the year before. This year, spending is expected to rise to approximately €480 billion. However, money alone does not create deterrence: what matters is whether resources are turned into contracts, contracts into capabilities, and capabilities into real operational readiness, the minister emphasized.
He also noted that the Baltic states are NATO leaders in defense spending relative to GDP (around 3%), while some countries, such as Norway, even surpass the United States. Estonia itself has been investing more than 3% of GDP in defense since the beginning of this year.
“The logic is simple: paying 3% or 4% today to preserve peace is far cheaper than paying 35% or 40% tomorrow because deterrence failed,” Pevkur stressed.
According to him, the war in Ukraine has shown that speed itself has become a strategic factor; modern warfare is no longer determined solely by force size. Today’s conflicts are networked, multidimensional, data-driven, and highly dynamic, while wartime innovation cycles move faster than peacetime procurement cycles, Pevkur said.
He called for a rethinking of defense organization: “quality over quantity, precision over mass, adaptability over rigidity.” In today’s security environment, flexibility itself has become a deterrent force. That is why Estonia has created a dedicated force transformation command aimed at accelerating innovation, enabling rapid testing, and introducing new capabilities faster than traditional defense systems allow. At the same time, the country is modernizing its conscription system and integrating lessons learned from the battlefield in Ukraine.
“Because Ukraine today is not only defending itself — Ukraine is shaping the future of warfare,” the Estonian defence minister emphasized.
