Russia’s Ministry of Industry has acknowledged that the sector is short of nearly 1.9 million workers. Of these, more than 500,000 are expected to be specialists with higher education, while another 1.4 million should have vocational secondary education. The numbers are striking on their own, but the real problem is not the quantity — it is where these people are supposed to come from.
In 2024, universities and technical institutions graduated more than 386,000 engineers and technical specialists. However, only about 27–28% of graduates from certain industrial specialties remain in production after finishing their studies. The rest go where salaries are higher. The system produces personnel every year that industry cannot retain.
There are several reasons for this, none of which are being resolved quickly. Enterprises are struggling under expensive loans and a lack of investment — there is simply no financial capacity to raise wages. The age structure of the workforce is deteriorating: over the past decade, the share of workers under 30 has dropped from 22% to 12%, while the share of those over 60 has increased by nearly 60%. Factories are aging along with their workers, and there is no generational replacement.
Technological modernization that could partially offset the labor shortage is also stalling. Automation and digitalization are progressing too slowly to replace those who have left or died. As a result, enterprises are being kept afloat through sheer workforce numbers — an archaic model that requires ever more people, even as fewer are available.
Industries that depend on a combination of engineering knowledge, production discipline, and experience with complex equipment will be hit first. A vicious cycle is emerging: there are not enough people to work, but also not enough to modernize. Enterprises will maintain current production cycles, but will be unable to invest in automation and new technologies. Russia’s technological lag behind the rest of the world will therefore only deepen — and no new mobilization plan will be able to fix it.
