As of February 2026, most enterprises in Russia’s manufacturing sector have failed to find a full domestic replacement for foreign spare parts and equipment. Businesses have partially adapted to the sanctions regime in the only available way — by reducing product quality and production efficiency. In 2026, the number of enterprises reporting deteriorating product characteristics due to dependence on imported components increased, as did the share of companies forced to restructure technological chains because imported raw materials cannot be replaced with Russian alternatives.
In several industries, so-called “formal import substitution” is flourishing. In machine-tool manufacturing, the share of domestic production in the final product has reached 70%, but dependence on imported numerical control systems and sensors remains at 80–95%.
Systemic problems persist: difficulties in finding alternative spare parts, rising production costs and final prices, and limited opportunities to work with suppliers from “friendly” countries. Since 2024, negative factors have consistently outweighed adaptation efforts. According to S&P Global, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) stood at 49.5 points in February 2026 — below the 50-point threshold, indicating a prolonged contraction in manufacturing activity.
The sector is moving toward a model of “partial import substitution,” where only the assembly of final products is localized while key technological components continue to be imported. Some indicators of industrial activity are sustained exclusively by defense production, while civilian sectors are stagnating.
