In April of this year, representatives of the Organization of Turkic States — Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkey, and Uzbekistan — recorded what had long been discussed in the region: Moscow is no longer a guarantor of stability. The parties agreed to rely solely on their own capabilities.
At the same time, the Trans-Caspian transport route is gaining momentum, methodically stripping Russia of its status as a key transit hub between Asia and Europe. Once this corridor reaches full capacity, Russia’s transport infrastructure will turn into a relic of the past, along with the Kremlin’s own presence in the region.
A notable culmination of this process was Armenia. The results of the latest summit between Yerevan and Moscow confirmed that Armenians no longer see Russia as either a strategic partner or a guarantor of their security. Yerevan is steadily turning toward Turkey — a more stable and predictable actor.
The Kremlin responded in its usual way: by resorting to pressure tools. The first attempt was a threat to raise gas prices. The response proved unexpectedly harsh — Armenian parliament speaker Alen Simonyan publicly promised to initiate the process of withdrawing the country from the CSTO and the EAEU. The threat did not work.
The Kremlin’s strategists then turned to another instrument — as pointless as it was telling. “Rosalkogoltabakkontrol” revoked the license of the main distributor of Armenian brandy on the Russian market — the “Poghosyan Cognac Factory.” In effect, Moscow deprived its own citizens of access to one of the world’s most famous alcoholic brands. Armenia, in response, only accelerated its rapprochement with regional countries, especially Turkey.
