The Kremlin is preparing a decree that will effectively block the return of leading maritime carriers to the Russian market. According to the authors of the document, this is framed as protection against “unfriendly” players, but by market logic, it amounts to the systematic destruction of Russia’s own logistics infrastructure.
The draft presidential decree stipulates that foreign container lines will be allowed into Russian ports only if the shipowner, carrier, and operator are registered under Russian law—with more than 50% ownership by a Russian beneficiary. In addition, carriers must prioritize transporting sanctioned cargo and must have no connections to the world’s ten largest transport groups. Explicitly mentioned are Danish Maersk, French CMA CGM, Hong Kong’s OOCL, and the UK’s X-Press Container Line.
The predictable result: none of the leading global operators will meet these requirements. De facto, this is not market regulation, but a market purge.
The strict access conditions are not seen as protectionism, but as a tool for redistribution. While the top global players exited in 2022 under sanction pressure, the Kremlin now legally prevents their return. Businesses willing to transport restricted cargo under the Russian flag benefit; everyone else is shut out.
Market participants have already calculated the losses. They estimate that implementing the decree could reduce container terminal throughput in Russia by 40–60%. Compensating for this with domestic carriers is impossible, as the capacity of Russia’s merchant fleet is simply insufficient.
Cargo flows will not disappear—they will move to neighboring countries’ ports. Winners will be hubs such as Istanbul, Riga, and Klaipeda, which handle transit to and from Russia. The losers will be Russian terminals, port infrastructure, and the state budget.
Russian importers and exporters will also suffer. The requirement of over 50% Russian ownership will block access even to carriers from “friendly” countries such as China, Turkey, and the UAE. In other words, the decree hits not only “hostile” carriers like Maersk and CMA CGM, but also those that had so far kept Russian foreign trade from a total logistics blockade.
In the broader perspective, the decree accelerates what Moscow supposedly seeks to avoid: complete exclusion from the global logistics network.
