The Ukrainian Armed Forces have forced the Russian forces to shift from their overconfident “we’re advancing everywhere” approach to urgently patching holes. And at the very moment when Putin tells oligarchs about the complete occupation of Donetsk region, his generals are pulling marines and paratroopers—their most combat-ready units—off those areas to cover Zaporizhzhia region.
In war, there are two equally dangerous extremes. The first is fear, lack of confidence in yourself. With that mindset, you lose—even before the first shot. The second is overconfidence, when you believe you have already won. Right now, the Russian forces are indeed redeploying their “firefighting teams” to the south to avoid losing everything there. That is our success, no question. And a piece of Myrnohrad remains ours, as does part of Pokrovsk. But the Russian forces are pressing and advancing precisely near Pokrovsk in the Hryshyne area, trying at any cost to break through toward the Lyman direction.
We haven’t lost the front or been defeated, but the situation is difficult. The hardest time will come when the “green zone” truly turns green. Then the Russian forces will actively push small groups toward the Kramatorsk agglomeration and in the direction of Zaporizhzhia—the key points of effort for their General Staff. They are already short on reserves, but they will try to cover this problem within a month through rotations and redeployments.
Ukrainian counteroffensives continue to yield results in southern Ukraine, creating operational and strategic advantages over Russian forces ahead of their spring–summer offensive on the “Fortification Belt,” according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). The successes in liberating territories are also confirmed by Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi and the General Staff. Ukrainian forces have officially liberated Beryozove (southeast of Oleksandrivka), eliminating a Russian salient.
But in the Kremlin, they fully understand the need to squeeze the most out of spring and summer 2026. After that, it won’t get easier; it will only get harder. Their minimum program is Donetsk region. During a meeting with oligarchs, Putin explicitly noted this condition. They plan to fight until they reach the borders of Donbas. Yet Zaporizhzhia and Kherson region have also been formally incorporated into Russia’s constitution. Formally and legally, for them, these regions are “Russian territory,” just like Crimea and Donbas.
I am repeating this for the tenth time for those who believe they can negotiate Donetsk region with Putin. We won’t. They want everything they have declared as theirs. And preferably more. That is why they are transferring elite army units from the most important Donetsk direction to Zaporizhzhia. Russian forces have zero readiness for peace or a ceasefire along the front line. This has been stated separately over two days by Putin, Peskov, and Lavrov.
But after strikes on oil terminals, there is less and less money for mercenaries and for the war in general. The frantic redeployment of paratroopers from Donbas to Zaporizhzhia and back is also a very telling indicator. So all plans to capture Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia region in 2026 look highly doubtful. These are not plans—they are wishes. Compared to them, the fantasies of a pimply teenager from Barnaul about Miss World look like entirely realistic short-term projects.
