Last week, a series of events indicated Russia’s motivation to engage in negotiations.
1. Statements from France and the UK about nuclear bombs for Ukraine. The notable detail here is that these statements didn’t come from the drunk Medvedev, but from the foreign intelligence service. So what could the purpose of these statements be? Definitely not to stop the transfer of nuclear weapons to us. I believe the goal was: change your position, pressure Ukraine in negotiations, or otherwise, “we have nuclear weapons.”
2. The Russians threatened to walk out of the negotiations. This is very strange because previously, they didn’t care about these talks at all, so what’s the problem with sending someone like Medinsky to attend and give lectures? They threaten to leave only when they start taking the negotiations seriously. In addition, Bloomberg published an article with details of last year’s summer negotiations on Ukraine. Specifically, it noted that ahead of the meeting with Trump in Anchorage, Putin gathered his officials and asked what they thought. Most of them supported a quick end to the war.
3. Budanov said that the Russians agreed to U.S. security guarantees for Ukraine. It’s not that this issue was a major stumbling block, but previously they avoided taking a position on it. Some Russian circles are beginning to consider the war with us in phases and believe that for now, they need to end it in a way that allows them to attack us again later. Recognizing guarantees complicates this scenario for them.
Overall, the situation is not moving in a positive direction for Russia. Although there might be a jump in oil prices, it won’t affect them much, since they mostly sell to China, which maximally discounts their purchases. Therefore, negotiations are a good opportunity for them to end the war without total collapse.
Meanwhile, “big Putin” watches as his strategic ally—Iran—is being taken down and feels completely powerless to act, since they still haven’t taken Kupyansk.
