According to a forecast by scientists from the Institute of Agricultural Economics, gross crop production in 2026 will increase by 4.0% compared to 2025, mainly due to higher production of grain and leguminous crops, said Oleksandr Nechiporenko, Deputy Director of the National Scientific Center “Institute of Agricultural Economics” and corresponding member of the National Academy of Agrarian Sciences, while presenting a new study titled “Forecast of Agricultural Production in Ukraine in 2026 (March 2026).”
He stated that in 2026, the harvest of grain and leguminous crops is expected to remain at the same level as in the previous year — about 60.2 million tons. At the same time, a decrease in the production of spring crops (-1.6%) is expected, in particular due to reduced sown areas, which will lead to lower maize harvests (-2.4%).
Sown areas for grain and leguminous crops will decrease by 2.6% compared to 2025. However, increases are forecast for buckwheat (+68.1%), rye (+32.4%), oats (+14.8%), barley (+5.4%), sorghum (+7.9%), and millet (2.3 times).
An increase in sown areas is also expected for industrial and oil crops: the largest growth is forecast for rapeseed (+11.3%), while the smallest change is for potatoes and vegetables (about +0.1%). A slight decrease in area compared to 2025 is possible for sunflower (-0.3%).
According to Institute of Agricultural Economics scientists, in 2026 compared to the previous year there will be a decrease in winter grain production (-0.1%), including winter wheat (-2.4%). A decline in spring grain production (-1.6%) is also possible, in particular maize (-2.4%).
At the same time, mainly due to profitability factors, growth is expected in most other crops: spring wheat (+3.1%), sorghum (+7.2%), winter barley (+18.6%), winter rye (+39.4%), buckwheat (1.9 times increase), and millet (2.5 times increase).
For industrial and other key agricultural crops, production is forecast to increase compared to 2025 for rapeseed (+17.7%), sunflower (+10.8%), and soybeans (+10.3%). In addition, increases are expected for fruits and berries (+5.2%), grapes (+3.3%), and potatoes (+1.7%).
At the same time, a decline is expected in sugar beet production (-6.9%) and vegetables (-0.9%) compared to 2025.
However, the projected crop production in 2026 will allow Ukraine to fully meet its domestic food needs and maintain export potential, Nechiporenko concluded.
The forecast for agricultural production in 2026 was prepared based on actual sown areas of winter crops and expected sowing of spring crops. Calculations used estimates from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine regarding 2025 harvest volumes and livestock and poultry numbers as of January 1, 2026.
Crop yield and livestock productivity indicators were calculated using a methodology developed by the National Scientific Center “Institute of Agricultural Economics,” taking into account climate change, as well as martial law, the consequences of hostilities, and the occupation of certain territories of Ukraine.
Scientists produce forecasts under three scenarios — optimistic, pessimistic, and average.
