The Belarusian army, together with Russian structures, has significantly intensified information pressure and hybrid provocations against Lithuania, using border incidents to demonstrate NATO’s alleged weakness, as reported by LTR.
According to the Lithuanian Armed Forces’ 2025 annual review by the Department of Strategic Communications, Minsk and Moscow actively present any violation of airspace or maritime borders as proof of Lithuania’s and the Alliance’s inability to defend their territories. The department’s director, Liutauras Bagočius, emphasized that the main goal of these activities is to influence not only Lithuanian society but also a Western audience, portraying the relationship between Vilnius and Minsk as irrational and harmful to Lithuania itself.
Last summer, the intensity of hybrid attacks reached serious levels: Russian Gerbera drones repeatedly entered Lithuanian territory, and Russian fighter jets violated its airspace. Additionally, the number of weather balloon launches with contraband from Belarus sharply increased, forcing authorities to temporarily close Vilnius Airport. Each such incident was immediately picked up by propaganda to undermine trust in state institutions and weaken public will to resist. The Belarusian side also used a mirror tactic, accusing Lithuania itself of provocations and sending balloons toward Belarus.
Hostile channels focused particularly on the Baltic Sea and Kaliningrad. Propaganda attacked NATO’s Baltic Guardian mission, labeling it modern piracy and accusing the Alliance of planning a blockade of Kaliningrad. Analysts note that this strong reaction stems from the exceptional importance of Kremlin’s “shadow fleet,” which allows it to bypass oil sanctions. The information attacks had a dual character: on one hand, Lithuania was accused of dangerous militarization of its borders, and on the other, the public was persuaded that defense spending was useless and only impoverished citizens.
After Donald Trump’s return to the White House, Moscow’s rhetoric toward Washington became more cautious, with European countries becoming the main target of threats. Direct nuclear intimidation was partially replaced by emphasis on the Oreshnik missile, allegedly unstoppable. There has also been active use of artificial intelligence to create fake images and deepfakes, though most texts are still written by humans.
Lithuanian military analysts warn that pressure from Belarus will not ease in the near future. The Minsk regime quickly adapts to political developments, even exploiting internal Lithuanian debates, such as those around the creation of the Kapčiamiestis training ground, simply copying local critics’ arguments into its channels. The army’s representative, Agnė Eidimtaite, concluded that despite the adaptability of methods, the main hostile narratives will remain unchanged, with the primary goal still being to intimidate Western societies and halt support for Ukraine.
