The nine nuclear-armed states—the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel—continued in 2025 to modernize and expand their arsenals, and most of them deployed new systems equipped with nuclear weapons or capable of carrying them during the year.
This is stated in the annual report of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).
It is reported that out of the total global arsenal, which in January 2026 was estimated at 12,187 warheads, about 9,745 were held in military stockpiles for potential use. An estimated 4,012 of these warheads were deployed on missiles and aircraft, while the remainder were kept in central storage facilities. Between 2,100 and 2,200 deployed warheads were on ballistic missiles in a state of high operational alert.
Almost all of these warheads belonged to Russia or the United States, and to a lesser extent France and the United Kingdom. However, China and India may now occasionally deploy a small number of warheads mounted on missiles during peacetime. Since the end of the Cold War, the gradual decommissioning of old warheads by Russia and the United States has generally outpaced the deployment of new ones, leading to an overall annual reduction in global nuclear stockpiles. SIPRI notes that this trend is likely to reverse in the coming years, as the pace of dismantlement slows while the deployment of new nuclear weapons accelerates.
“There is increasing evidence that nuclear-armed states are sidelining or even abandoning their disarmament commitments, instead flexing their ‘nuclear muscles’. By turning to nuclear options, states are creating new risks and fueling the dynamics of an arms race,” said Hans M. Kristensen, Senior Researcher in the Weapons of Mass Destruction Programme at SIPRI and Director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists (FAS).
According to the Institute, Russia and the United States account for about 83% of all nuclear warheads in military stockpiles. At the same time, this combined share is gradually decreasing due to the growth of other nuclear arsenals worldwide. According to the SIPRI Yearbook, the sizes of Russia’s and the United States’ military stockpiles appeared to remain relatively stable last year, but large-scale modernization programs in both countries are likely to lead to increases in the size and expansion of the range of their arsenals in the future.
SIPRI experts note that Russia’s nuclear forces modernization program is facing difficulties. In 2025, another test launch of the “Sarmat” intercontinental ballistic missile under development in Russia ended in failure, and Western economic sanctions and war-related demands linked to the war in Ukraine appear to have negatively affected the program. Another problematic Russian project is the new ground-launched “Burevestnik” cruise missile, which was claimed to have successfully completed flight tests over a distance of more than 14,000 km in 2025 after a series of failed attempts. In addition, SIPRI notes that Russia has begun constructing an advanced operational base in Belarus for its dual-capable medium-range ballistic missiles “Oreshnik.” “Oreshnik” missiles with conventional warheads have been used against Ukraine, most recently in May of this year.
SIPRI experts forecast an increase in Russia’s arsenal, mainly through the modernization of its remaining strategic forces, aimed at increasing the number of warheads on each missile.
