Main image: Russian dictator Vladimir Putin on April 10, 2026, chaired a meeting at the Kremlin on the development of artificial intelligence technologies. AP, Alexander Kazakov
Although Russia publicly claims that it is successfully coping with the consequences of Western sanctions, internal assessments acknowledge that the sanctions are causing and will continue to cause it significant damage, according to Latvia’s Constitution Protection Bureau (SAB).
This was reported by LSM.
SAB published a report titled “Damage Caused to Russia by Western Sanctions,” which examines how the impact of sanctions on the country’s economy is actually assessed within Russia itself.
According to SAB head Egils Zviedris, this information was obtained through operational intelligence.
“Sanctions have an impact. And in the future, they will have a significant impact on the development of the Russian economy,” he said.
At the same time, he acknowledged that sanctions will not be a tool that quickly and effectively changes Russia’s aggressive stance toward Western countries.
“But sanctions are a tool through which we can weaken Russia’s economic capabilities and thereby also reduce the threat Russia poses to Western countries,” Zviedris added.
Although the Russian regime typically avoids openly discussing problems and challenges, intelligence information indicates that Russian authorities are conducting internal, non-public assessments of the actual and potential damage caused by Western sanctions. Such calculations are usually based on trends across various sectors of the economy, SAB noted.
Some of these assessments confirm that sanctions have already inflicted significant damage on Russia directly.
Since the invasion of Ukraine, Russia has lost around $130 billion (approximately $32.5 billion per year), a sum the country has been forced to spend on circumventing sanctions to purchase goods that it could previously buy more cheaply from Western countries.
Russia is also particularly concerned about Western pressure on its trading partners — secondary sanctions, tariffs, and other restrictions that limit its ability to redirect trade to alternative markets.
According to SAB, most representatives of the Russian regime, including senior officials, understand that the war against Ukraine and sanctions are causing serious damage to the economy and negatively affecting the country’s development prospects.
However, information about the state of the economy within Russian institutions is shaped by official propaganda narratives in order to make their work appear more effective.
The report also notes that it is likely that Russian dictator Vladimir Putin receives distorted information about the country’s economic situation.
In this distorted picture presented to Putin, emphasis is placed on “successful development,” while problems and risks are downplayed.
This likely reinforces his belief that economic losses are secondary to the goal of establishing control over Ukraine. Even while facing serious economic difficulties, Putin, according to SAB’s assessment, is unlikely to change his aggressive foreign policy course.
