Land prices in Ukraine are expected to continue rising. The pace of growth will depend on the security situation and the activity of agricultural holdings.
This opinion was expressed by expert Ihor Yurchenko from the National Scientific Center Institute of Agrarian Economics.
According to the expert, market dynamics since the launch of the land market in Ukraine in July 2021 have shown a steady upward trend, as reflected by an increase in the average price per hectare by almost 1.57 times. The price per hectare rose from 31,959 UAH in the second half of 2021 to 50,054 UAH at the end of 2025.
“Growth rates in 2024–2025 stabilized at around +16%, which is a significant indicator even without adjusting for inflation. Data for the first four months of 2026 show an average price of 56,581 UAH per hectare, which is 12.9% higher than the same period in 2025,” the expert noted.
According to the forecast, by the end of 2026 the price of agricultural land may reach 54,000–62,000 UAH per hectare, meaning an increase of 8–18% compared to the 2025 average.
He noted that the lower bound of 54,000 UAH could be realized in a scenario of deteriorating security conditions, a sharp decline in transactions, or a slowdown in activity by large companies. The upper bound of 62,000 UAH is possible if the current pace continues and large companies, which typically buy land at higher prices than individuals, further increase their market share.
The expert explains that the entry of legal entities as buyers has created a structural shift in the market, as they offer a price premium of 38–40%. This pushes the average price upward and sets a new benchmark for the entire market.
A baseline and moderately optimistic scenario for 2026, according to Yurchenko, suggests a 10–14% increase, provided that current corporate activity continues and there is no sharp deterioration in the security situation.
