Several recent incidents in Europe, including drone incursions and acts of sabotage, were conducted by Russia or are likely attributable to Russia, as Western officials are increasingly warning of intensified Russian kinetic activity against Europe in the near future.
A Russian Gerbera-type drone crashed in Moldova and another in Romania on September 24. Russian forces conducted combined drone and missile strikes against Ukraine, including against western Ukrainian regions, on the night of September 23 to 24.
A Russian Gerbera-type drone subsequently crashed in Cernita, Moldova, according to geolocated footage published on September 24 and statements from the Moldovan police.
The Romanian Ministry of National Defense reported that an unspecified aerial vehicle entered Romanian airspace for approximately four minutes on September 24 and crashed near Solca, Romania, and geolocated footage confirmed that a Russian Gerbera-type drone crashed in the area.
Chernivtsi region Military Administration Head Ruslan Osypenko reported on September 24 that four Russian drones flew over Bukovyna in western Ukraine and targeted Ukrainian border crossings with Moldova and Romania.
Osypenko noted that Ukrainian forces shot down three drones in Ukraine and that one drone flew toward Suceava County in Romania. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk stated that Polish authorities evacuated the Zosin and Dorohusk crossings at the Polish-Ukrainian border for 30 minutes as a preventative measure during Russian strikes against Ukraine on September 24.
The September 24 evacuations of Polish border crossings are in line with the preventative security posture that Poland adopted in response to Russian strikes near the Polish-Ukrainian border crossings and recent drone incursions into Poland.
Intentional and accidental Russian drone incursions into NATO and Moldovan airspaces are likely part of the Kremlin’s efforts to normalize airspace violations by intensifying their frequency.
