The Kremlin is looking for new narratives to try to convince the United States and Europe to not agree to security guarantees for Ukraine.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov used a February 4 interview with Russian state media outlet Russia Today (RT) to once again reject Western security guarantees for Ukraine.
Lavrov referenced a recent report from the Financial Times (FT) outlining the reported multi-layered security guarantees agreement that the United States, Europe, and Ukraine have been discussing to respond to a possible Russian invasion of post-war Ukraine.
Lavrov claimed that the reported security guarantees document is “practically an ultimatum” to Russia and that Ukraine would stage a false flag attack and blame Russia in order to receive a “carte blanche” from the West to renew fighting. Lavrov rejected a ceasefire that precedes a final peace resolution, claiming that the West will use such a ceasefire to supply Ukraine with weapons. Kremlin officials have repeated the same rhetoric about Western security guarantees in recent months, consistently calling such guarantees “unacceptable” for Russia and labelling foreign troop deployments to Ukraine as “legitimate” Russian targets.
The Kremlin, however, appears to now be trying to find new narratives to reject Western security guarantees and to convince the United States and Europe to not agree to them, likely as the United States, Ukraine, and Europe move closer to finalizing the agreement. Kremlin officials started to use new narratives on February 2 and 3, claiming that the presence of foreign troops in Ukraine could lead to a third world war and direct military conflict between nuclear powers.
Lavrov’s February 4 claim about an alleged Ukrainian false flag attack is likely yet another attempt to find new ways to convince the United States and Europe to not provide security guarantees to Ukraine. RT is a Russian state media outlet with an extensive global reach in various languages, and the Kremlin is likely using Lavrov’s interview to disseminate these narratives to international audiences, including those in the United States.
Lavrov implied that Russia’s demand for Ukrainian “neutrality” aims to turn Ukraine into a pro-Russian proxy state. Lavrov claimed to RT that the only kind of Ukraine that Russia is “prepared to see as a long-term, eternal neighbor” is a “friendly” Ukraine that is “not necessarily an ally” but is “neutral” and “benevolent.”
Lavrov’s statement offers insight into the additional demands embedded in Russia’s original war demand for Ukrainian “neutrality” and indicates that Russia seeks to turn Ukraine into a proxy state even if Russia does not physically control all of Ukraine’s territory. Lavrov’s insistence that post-war Ukraine be “friendly” and “benevolent” implies that Russia will only be satisfied with a Ukraine led by a pro-Russian government that makes pro-Russian policies. Russia likely aims to turn Ukraine into another Belarus, which ISW assesses Russia has de facto annexed, even as Belarus maintains its borders and government.
