Russia’s federal budget deficit for 2025 was about 26% higher than officially reported, reaching roughly 3.6% of GDP—a figure Moscow is trying to conceal with falsified statistics.
This is according to intelligence from Germany’s Federal Intelligence Service (BND).
“According to BND intelligence, the federal budget deficit for 2025 is approximately 26% higher than officially stated and amounts to around 3.6% of GDP. This reflects the real costs the Kremlin is willing to bear for its war against Ukraine, with consequences that will last for years,” the BND statement says.
The report notes that nearly all sectors of the Russian economy show negative trends and warns that “without comprehensive countermeasures, structural problems in an economy heavily dependent on the energy sector will deepen long-term and may become chronic.”
“The Russian oil economy suffers not only from high tax burdens, which Putin uses to finance his war. Drone attacks and sanctions are eroding Russia’s most critical source of foreign currency. Due to Western sanctions, Russia is forced to sell oil at a significant discount to global prices,” the report adds.
According to the BND, India—alongside China the last major buyer of Russian oil—“has already significantly reduced imports under U.S. pressure.” German intelligence notes that “extraterritorial U.S. sanctions are driving a sharp drop in Russia’s revenues from oil and LNG exports.”
The report also emphasizes that trust in Russia’s official statistics continues to decline, and that “Russia’s investment attractiveness has become an unpredictable risk.”
BND experts highlight the potential impact of further sanctions:
“Additional measures—for example, against countries supporting Russia or its so-called shadow fleet—and their consistent implementation could further raise the cost of Putin’s aggressive war: revenues fall, while expenses to maintain the status quo rise. The future of Russia’s economy continues to erode,” the analysis concludes.
