Amid a sharp increase in cash in circulation, which reached $253 billion as of January 1, 2026, the Russian central bank acknowledged a systemic problem: in 2025, the outflow of funds from the banking sector amounted to $12.8 billion. As a result, the structural liquidity deficit in the banking system expanded to $14.7 billion—a figure that directly reflects the loss of depositor confidence in financial institutions.
Since early 2022, the cash supply in Russia has increased by 40%, with the sharpest growth recorded between July and September 2025. For comparison, in countries with developed cashless payment systems, the share of cash typically does not exceed 10–15%. In countries with weak payment infrastructure or chronic distrust of banks, it reaches 30–50% or more.
According to the Russian central bank’s forecast, in 2026 the structural liquidity deficit will not only fail to decrease but will continue to grow—reaching $32–45 billion. This indicates that the banking system is entering a phase of sustained dependence on emergency refinancing from the regulator, losing its ability to independently accumulate resources.
Demand for cash is increasing for several reasons: declining deposit yields, citizens’ desire to ensure uninterrupted payments outside the banking system, and the active use of cash to circumvent financial monitoring. Together, these factors form a direct public response to the increasing risks of keeping funds in banks.
