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Foreign Intelligence Service: Kremlin eyes new windfall tax as budget pressures mount

Foreign Intelligence Service: Kremlin eyes new windfall tax as budget pressures mount
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Despite proposals from Russian oligarchs to voluntarily contribute to the budget to finance the war, the Kremlin plans to impose an additional “windfall tax” on large companies. Following the results of 2025, the Russian authorities intend to introduce a new tax on excess profits amid a growing budget deficit and financial pressure linked to the war against Ukraine.

The tax rate could reach as high as 20%, which is twice as much as during the previous campaign in 2023. The tax would apply to the portion of companies’ profits for 2025 that exceeds the average level for 2018–2019. This same period was used as the baseline during the collection of windfall profits for 2021–2022.

The previous windfall tax brought approximately 318.8 billion rubles into the Russian budget. At the same time, oil and gas and coal companies were exempt from paying it, while the main burden fell on enterprises involved in the extraction of ores, rare metals, and phosphorites, as well as the production of pig iron, rolled metal, pipes, non-ferrous metals, and businesses operating in the trade sector.

The initiative for the new levy emerged against the backdrop of a worsening financial situation in Russia. According to data from the Russian Ministry of Finance, in the first quarter of 2026 the budget deficit exceeded the annual plan by 20%, reaching 4.576 trillion rubles compared to the planned 3.786 trillion for the year. An additional factor was a 45.4% drop in oil and gas revenues compared to the same period in 2025.

Economists note that even potential additional profits from energy exports will not be enough to cover the budget deficit. Against this background, the government is forced to look for new sources of revenue, particularly from businesses that still remain profitable.

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