Defense projects have become the key factor behind increased metal consumption in Ukraine over the past two years and remain so in 2025.
This was stated by Serhiy Kovalenko, Commercial Director of the metal trading company Vartis, during a panel discussion at the Metal Expert conference 'Ukraine’s Black Metallurgy 2025.'
According to him, it became clear by the end of 2023 that the government would invest in large-scale construction of fortifications, defensive structures, and fortified areas. These projects have set the pace for rolled metal consumption and are now the main source of market demand.
“All the growth in metal consumption is driven by state funding. Commercial construction of housing and infrastructure has had practically no impact on the market. Although these segments have shown some revival, their growth is just 2–3% per year,” Kovalenko explained.
In 2025, he expects active consumption of rolled metal to continue—again, driven solely by government contracts for the construction of defensive structures. He also emphasized that the demand for fortifications will not disappear immediately after the active phase of the war ends. Projects are expected to continue for at least another six months to a year.
After that, another important factor may come into play: the reconstruction of destroyed territories. At the same time, Kovalenko notes that despite the current visible pause, many projects in the private sector are already prepared to launch—developers are just waiting for clear signals regarding safety and financing.
“Any real improvement on the front line or political shifts toward ending the war will serve as a signal to start mass civilian construction,” Kovalenko concluded.
