The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) published an updated global outlook for key agricultural crops for the 2026/27 marketing year in June 2026, the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club press service reported.
According to the June report, USDA revised Ukraine’s wheat forecast upward, while the figures for corn remained unchanged.
Under the updated USDA projections, wheat production in Ukraine in the 2026/27 marketing year was increased by 0.5 million tonnes to 23.5 million tonnes. The export forecast was also raised by 1.0 million tonnes to 14.0 million tonnes. At the same time, the estimate for ending stocks was reduced by 2.0 million tonnes to 2.5 million tonnes. The main reason for the revision is improved expectations for the harvest due to more favorable weather conditions in the spring period and stronger export potential at the start of the new season.
The corn outlook for Ukraine remained unchanged: production at 30.0 million tonnes, exports at 23.0 million tonnes, and ending stocks at 2.56 million tonnes.
The updated global wheat market forecast for 2026/27 indicates an increase in production, trade, and ending stocks. Global wheat production was raised by 1.0 million tonnes to 820.1 million tonnes. The main factors behind the revision were higher expected yields in some countries of the Black Sea region and Turkey, partially offset by lower forecasts for producers in the Southern Hemisphere and Asia.
The increase in global wheat production is mainly linked to upward revisions for Russia, Turkey, and Ukraine. At the same time, part of the growth was offset by lower expected harvests in Australia and Pakistan.
The global wheat trade forecast was increased by 0.3 million tonnes to 212.0 million tonnes. The main driver was higher export expectations from Ukraine, while lower export forecasts for Australia partially limited overall growth.
Global wheat ending stocks for 2026/27 were raised by 0.4 million tonnes to 275.4 million tonnes.
In the global corn market, USDA increased its forecasts for production, exports, and ending stocks. Global corn production in 2026/27 was raised by 5.0 million tonnes to 1,300.4 million tonnes. The main reason was higher expected output outside the United States, particularly due to increased maize planting areas in India.
The global corn export forecast was raised by 0.7 million tonnes to 207.6 million tonnes, driven mainly by higher export expectations from India and South Africa. Import forecasts were also increased for Mexico, Egypt, and the Philippines.
Global corn ending stocks increased by 3.7 million tonnes to 281.2 million tonnes, due to higher expected reserves in India, Argentina, and South Africa, partially offset by lower stocks in Brazil.
