In the 2025/26 marketing year, Ukraine will export 23.8 million tons of corn, which is 8.3% higher than in the previous marketing year.
This was reported by analysts from the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club.
There is a gradual recovery in corn production volumes following the occupation of parts of Ukraine by Russian forces. According to forecasts, the 2025/26 marketing year (MY) harvest is expected to reach 29.9 million tons, which is 11.2% higher compared to the previous marketing year, although still 6.8% below the five-year average.
Key insights for this crop this season:
Improved gross yield due to expanded sowing areas: In 2025/26 MY, farmers increased corn planting by 11.6% to 4.5 million hectares, although this remains 3.9% below the five-year average. The season faced challenging weather conditions, with heavy autumn rains causing prolonged harvests that are still ongoing. As a result, average yield reached 6.6 t/ha, 0.3% lower than the previous MY. Nevertheless, the expansion of planting areas allowed gross production to grow by 11.2%, reaching 29.9 million tons.
Export decline and reduced stocks: In 2024/25 MY, corn exports fell by 25.6%, totaling 22.0 million tons. This decline was due to lower production volumes and a significant reduction in carryover stocks, which dropped from 6.4 million tons in 2023/24 MY to 3.7 million tons in 2024/25 MY. The production recovery in 2025/26 MY is expected to allow exports to rise to 23.8 million tons.
Domestic consumption mostly for feed: Total domestic corn consumption in Ukraine in 2025/26 MY is estimated at 6.2 million tons, with the majority—5.2 million tons—used for animal feed. Additionally, 182,000 tons are allocated for seed purposes, and 418,000 tons for non-food processing.
"Conclusion: The Ukrainian corn market remains resilient. Despite the loss of areas due to the temporary occupation by Russian forces and difficult weather during harvest, farmers are managing to expand planting areas and gross production. The crop meets domestic animal feed needs and is returning to export growth, remaining a cornerstone of Ukrainian exports. This allows Ukraine to maintain a strong presence in strategically important markets in the EU and the Middle East," writes the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club
