A brief update on the negotiations. They’re like Schrödinger’s cat: at the same time clearly at a dead end and yet set to continue. For now, Ukraine is “winning” not because of brilliant diplomacy, but because our diplomats aren’t making mistakes and the circumstances are on our side. And I don’t want to disappoint anyone, but these talks will not bring peace. Not this time, and not this winter.
By and large, the parties have more or less found some kind of compromise on almost all issues. I don’t know what’s happening with reparations and trials for war crimes — formally, I think that’s zero. But Europe and the United States will find money for reconstruction, on the condition that their companies do the work. Yes, there’s no corruption there — it’s clean lobbying. As for the war criminals… there likely won’t be an international court ruling. So what, will Maliuk and Budanov just disappear? And their teams? We’ll deal with accountability ourselves — and frankly, I like that better. So all issues except one are essentially closed. But everything hinges on that one. Territory. Territory Russia cannot seize, but wants to receive as a prize — at least Donetsk region.
This is where we’re completely stuck. Moscow needs its own “victory.” It has to show its herd what they fought and died for over four years. Smart-asses will still snicker that in 1941–1945 more territory was gained in a war and that makes Stalin “greater” than Putin, but there’s no time to waste on them. The herd can be fed Donetsk region. “We bombed Donbas for eight years, poor ‘DNR’ suffered from Azov and Right Sector, Mother Russia came and protected them.” You may laugh, but the herd will swallow it without choking. They’ll even spam us with this nonsense on social media. The problem is that Kyiv is not giving up Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Druzhkivka, or Pokrovsk. Zelensky tells them to get lost. He was blackmailed, threatened — and then they looked around and realized that even if he were replaced, there’s no one willing to hand over territory. Enter history on a page like that? No one wants to, not even for money. One person already tried maneuvering with the unrecognized “DNR” and “LNR,” and it ended badly — very badly, in fact.
So what do we actually have today? A stalemate. Someone has to break and give way. Either we give up territory, or Moscow shuts up and drops its claims to what it failed to capture. This is obvious to everyone. They have no success at the front, which is why they’ve focused on bombing civilians and energy infrastructure. They’ve bombed effectively, but they haven’t gotten capitulation or panic. A few people blocking a highway in Khmelnytskyi don’t change anything. And U.S. sanctions are working. If Biden had imposed them on Russia’s oil sector back in 2022 and started seizing shadow fleet ships, it might have all ended already. But we play the cards we have — dreams don’t fly.
Russia’s economy is heading toward a crisis. Oil money is no longer saving it, and gas is in bad shape. That means fewer mercenaries and less purchased weaponry. When will the crisis hit? In spring or summer. It won’t be a sudden collapse. Moscow had a chance to steer out in the fall, but they missed it. There’s nothing new here: the situation remains the same — we need to hold out until their downturn. That’s not days, but it’s not years either. It looks very much like Russia won’t make it through 2026 — maybe not even the first half. If we keep hitting refineries and energy infrastructure, and if we can take out 50,000 a month — great. We’ll finish faster. Time is on our side. The darkest hour is just before dawn.
