Ukrainian forces have conducted a series of counterattacks in different areas across the theater in recent months, having made their most significant gains on the battlefield since Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk region in August 2024.
Ukrainian counterattacks recaptured much of Kupyansk starting in November 2025, liberated over 400 square kilometers in southern Ukraine in winter and spring 2026, and most recently liberated several settlements in western Zaporizhia region since late April 2026.
Ukrainian counterattacks in southern Ukraine have created cascading operational and strategic effects against Russia’s ongoing Spring-Summer 2026 offensive against the Fortress Belt, which has forced Russia to choose between defending against Ukrainian counterattacks or allocating manpower and resources to priority sectors.
Ukraine’s intensified mid-range strike campaign against Russian logistics, military equipment, and manpower since early 2026 has also degraded Russian forces’ ability to conduct offensive operations across the theater and has also likely supported recent Ukrainian advances.
Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Oleksandr Syrskyi stated on May 15 in an exclusive interview with Ukrainian defense outlet Militarnyi that precise Ukrainian strikes, the destruction of Russian reserves, and constant pressure on Russian assault units have allowed Ukrainian forces to increasingly seize the tactical initiative and force Russian forces to react to a Ukrainian-defined operational tempo.
Syrskyi did not provide absolute figures but noted that the number of Ukrainian offensive actions exceeded those of Russian forces as of May 14, which may indicate Ukraine contesting the initiative at the tactical level and engaging in more active counterattacks.
Ukrainian forces are on track to meet their monthly imposed casualty targets for May 2026. Syrskyi attributed recent Ukrainian battlefield successes to a systematic Ukrainian effort to reduce Russian combat power and Russia’s ability to sustain assault operations by constantly striking Russian manpower.
Ukrainian Unmanned Systems Forces (USF) Commander Major Robert Brovdi reported on May 20 that Ukrainian drones struck 19,203 Russian personnel in the first 19 days of May, according to data collected in Ukraine’s Delta battlefield management software, of which USF elements struck over 6,000.
Brovdi forecasted that Ukrainian drones will inflict over 34,000 Russian casualties by the end of May 2026, excluding casualties from artillery shelling, rear strikes, frontline battle losses, and other unconfirmed losses. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) is struggling to recruit enough personnel to compensate for losses, and the Russian recruitment rate has dipped below its replacement rate, concluding only 70,500 military service contracts in the first quarter of 2026, below the monthly quota of 33,500 to 34,600 contracts signed.
Ukrainian Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov stated on May 5 that Ukrainian forces reached their objective of inflicting casualties greater than Russia’s recruitment rate in April 2026 and set a new objective of inflicting around 50,000 Russian casualties per month.
Ukrainian forces will likely further expand their mid-range strike campaign and continue counterattacks in vulnerable sectors of the frontline, which will likely further inhibit Russian offensive operations.
