Russia has intensified its sabotage operations in Europe, according to the International Centre for Counter-Terrorism (ICCT) and the analytical center Globsec. Researchers conclude that Russia increasingly uses criminal networks as a tool of hybrid warfare, with the campaign noticeably accelerating since the summer of 2025 and continuing to grow.
From the start of the full-scale aggression against Ukraine in February 2022 up to mid-February 2026, 151 incidents linked to Russian activity have been recorded—41 more than were noted in the previous autumn. The number of identified perpetrators has also risen, reaching 172 individuals. Experts warn that using criminal elements as expendable assets allows Moscow to conduct forceful operations in EU countries with minimal risk to itself, but with serious consequences for the security and social stability of Western societies.
The primary factor in selecting attack targets is the level of support a given country provides to Ukraine. Poland remains the most affected country, with 31 incidents recorded. It is followed by France with 20 cases, and Lithuania and Germany, each with 15 incidents.
The spectrum of hostile actions is extremely broad: it includes online propaganda and incitement of ethnic hatred, such as desecration of Jewish and Muslim monuments, as well as serious physical attacks. These involve arson, planned assassinations, and attempts to sabotage explosive devices in major logistics centers. These actions aim not only to destroy infrastructure but also to undermine unity within European countries.
Analysis of the 172 identified perpetrators shows that 95% are ordinary civilians with no official ties to Russian intelligence agencies. Their main motivation is financial gain.
The report notes that many of these individuals are minors recruited through social networks like TikTok and Telegram, attracted by gaming tasks or promises of quick money. Citizens of former Soviet republics in difficult economic situations are also at risk.
For physical attacks and acts of violence, Russia actively recruits football hooligans and individuals with criminal backgrounds. This marks a new phase of hybrid warfare, in which the line between organized crime and state-sponsored terrorism is increasingly blurred.
