Main image: Smuggling balloons, by VRM
After a month and a half of relative calm, Lithuania is once again facing a wave of mass launches of contraband balloons from Belarus. The incidents have become so serious that last week Vilnius Airport had to be temporarily closed because of them. The situation is escalating: during one operation to intercept a shipment of cigarettes, a man attempting to seize the contraband injured a law enforcement officer. Lithuanian Prime Minister Ingrida Šimonytė, commenting on the events, noted that the nature of Minsk’s actions has changed. Whereas in October of last year these incidents were regarded purely as criminal activity, Lithuanian authorities now see them as a hybrid format — a combination of organized smuggling and elements of a hybrid attack, according to LRT.
The Lithuanian government’s position regarding the nature of these launches has undergone a significant shift. The Prime Minister emphasized that clear signs of hybrid influence aimed at destabilization and testing the response of Lithuanian services are now being recorded at the border. According to Šimonytė, such threats constantly loom over the country, with provocations involving drones and balloons also observed in Estonia, Latvia, and Poland. Members of the Lithuanian Seimas believe Belarus is using these methods to pressure Vilnius into direct negotiations at the vice-ministerial level.
In mid-December 2025, hopes for an end to the “balloon war” emerged after U.S. presidential special envoy John Cole reported an alleged promise from Alexander Lukashenko to halt the launches. However, experts and political analysts note that no formal agreement was reached, and the temporary absence of balloons earlier this year may have been due not to diplomacy but to unfavorable wind conditions. Lithuanian Interior Minister Vladas Kondratovičius confirmed that Minsk is completely ignoring signals from the Lithuanian side and is taking no measures to apprehend the organizers of the launches on its territory.
Amid the ongoing incidents, President Gitanas Nausėda stated that the United States has already issued a stern warning to Belarus, describing the launches as unacceptable and threatening to any attempt to establish constructive relations.
Within Lithuania, law enforcement is increasing patrols and preparing legislative changes to toughen penalties. Investigative journalists have revealed that organized criminal groups are involved in the smuggling schemes, employing complex logistics, GPS trackers, and frontmen. Lithuanian authorities have already sent Belarus their sixth official note of protest, insisting that without the knowledge and permission of the Belarusian regime, such large-scale launches would not be possible.
