Russia is facing growing economic pressure across several sectors, with gold reserves declining, oil processing and exports weakening, corporate bankruptcies rising and borrowing costs remaining high despite cuts to the central bank’s key interest rate.
Russia’s gold reserves have fallen to 73.2 million troy ounces, their lowest level in six years. Since the beginning of the year, the country has reduced its holdings by around 50 tonnes, while their value has declined by $33.7 billion. The scale of the reduction is reportedly the largest recorded by the World Gold Council since 2002.
Pressure is also visible in the oil sector. Average daily refinery processing fell to 3.6 million barrels in July, around a third below typical seasonal levels and the lowest figure since 2002. Seaborne exports of Russian crude have meanwhile declined to around 3.71 million barrels per day in recent weeks, their lowest level since late May.
Russian companies are also facing a weak dividend season, with high interest rates, economic stagnation and war-related costs weighing on corporate earnings.
At the same time, the Russian central bank’s decision to cut its key interest rate to 14% has so far brought little relief to businesses. In June, the average rate on short-term corporate loans stood at 17.1%, while the rate on long-term loans increased to 12.9%.
Borrowing is even more expensive for small and medium-sized businesses, which face average rates of 18% on short-term loans and 15.1% on longer-term financing.
One factor is the reduction of state-subsidised lending. Since 2025, the Russian government has cut the annual limit for new preferential loans to small and medium-sized businesses from the equivalent of $5.9 billion to $1.2 billion, concentrating support on selected sectors including manufacturing, IT, logistics and research and technology.
Financial stress among businesses is becoming increasingly visible. The share of problematic loans among small and medium-sized companies rose from 5.9% at the beginning of 2025 to 7.6% in April 2026. Russian courts declared 3,547 companies bankrupt in the first half of 2026, an increase of 10.8% year-on-year.
Other indicators point to longer-term structural problems. Russia is recording its lowest birth rate in 35 years, while the fertility rate in rural areas has fallen to 1.361, its lowest level since 1990.
Consumer and tourism indicators have also weakened. Around 460,000 iPhones were sold in Russia during the first half of the year, 60,000 fewer than a year earlier and the lowest figure since 2022. The number of foreign visitors has meanwhile fallen by almost 20%, marking the weakest result in five years.
Russian analysts expect investment in production to decline further as high borrowing costs and growing debt burdens put additional pressure on financially weaker companies. With banks maintaining high lending rates because of credit risks, lower central bank rates have yet to translate into significantly cheaper financing or a recovery in business investment.
