Some components of Russian exports have fallen by as much as 80% this month, while Ukrainian long-range strikes have disrupted oil refining and missile production, according to Ukrainian military intelligence.
President Volodymyr Zelensky said he received the latest assessment from Oleh Ivashchenko, head of Ukraine’s Defence Intelligence. The findings are based partly on internal Russian documents obtained by Ukrainian intelligence.
According to Zelensky, the decline in exports is causing significant losses for Russia’s federal budget as well as regional budgets, some of which are already under severe financial pressure.
Ukrainian intelligence also reports that Russia’s Black Sea Fleet is effectively confined to Novorossiysk as a result of Ukrainian drone strikes and is currently unable to operate freely at sea.
According to the intelligence assessment cited by Zelensky, Russia is considering arming civilian vessels because its navy is unable to provide sufficient protection for commercial shipping and vessels associated with the Russian shadow fleet. Possible measures include equipping civilian ships with small arms and electronic warfare systems and placing military personnel aboard them.
Zelensky said Ukraine would prepare measures in response to what he described as Russia’s militarisation of civilian shipping.
Ukrainian intelligence also reported significant damage to Russia’s defence industry from long-range strikes. According to information obtained from Russian sources, repeated Ukrainian attacks on the Kamensky Combine in Russia’s Rostov region have substantially reduced its capacity to manufacture solid-fuel rocket engines.
Defence Intelligence has also obtained updated information about Russian ballistic missile production and Moscow’s plans to expand it. Zelensky called on Ukraine’s partners to tighten sanctions on components, equipment and machine tools used by Russia’s missile industry.
“Without foreign components, the Russians are unable to implement any part of their missile programme,” Zelensky said.
The intelligence report also indicates that one of Russia’s largest oil refineries, located in Kstovo in the Nizhny Novgorod region, has stopped operating. The facility had an annual processing capacity of around 17 million tonnes of oil.
According to Zelensky, Ukrainian intelligence has evidence of disruptions at other Russian refineries as well, as Ukraine continues its campaign of long-range strikes against Russia’s oil and military-industrial infrastructure.
