Russian civil aviation is entering a period of heightened risks amid sanctions, a shortage of spare parts, and an aging fleet. Despite claims of relatively strong demand and high flight occupancy, the sector faces systemic constraints that will significantly affect both flight safety and passenger volumes in the coming years.
The most pessimistic scenario was outlined by Dmitry Yadro, head of Rosaviatsiya, who predicts the retirement of 339 aircraft by 2030. Around 109 foreign aircraft, which cannot be properly serviced, and 230 outdated Soviet-era planes aged 40–60 years will be withdrawn from operation. Considering that ambitious import substitution plans have effectively failed—of 15 commercial airliners planned for 2025, only one was delivered—the industry faces a real risk of a “technical famine.”
Western sanctions imposed after the start of Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine have been the sector’s biggest challenge. Restrictions on new aircraft and spare parts from Boeing and Airbus have forced Russian carriers to maintain the airworthiness of over 700 aircraft through parallel imports and by cannibalizing some planes for parts. Due to spare parts shortages, more than a third of long-haul aircraft needed for flights to the Far East and abroad are not operational. Of the 93 foreign wide-body passenger aircraft remaining in Russia, fewer than 60 are in service. Moscow has even appealed to the International Civil Aviation Organization to relax the sanctions, citing flight safety concerns.
Against this backdrop, Ural Airlines announced a program to extend the service life of Airbus A320 family aircraft beyond 96,000 flight hours at its own technical center. Experts warn that carrying out such work outside manufacturer-certified centers could distance Russian aviation from international safety standards. Limited access to original components and technical support from the manufacturer adds further operational risks.
In the most pessimistic scenario, by 2030 Russia’s tourism sector will experience a significant decline in both domestic and outbound travel, and regions will face the risk of transport isolation. Long-term consequences may include reduced flight safety if outdated aircraft continue to be operated without full access to international technical support infrastructure.
