Russia remains the largest and most immediate threat to peace in Europe — this is the main conclusion of the annual report of the Dutch military intelligence service MIVD.
The Kremlin is systematically undermining the stability of the democratic world simultaneously across dozens of fronts — cyberattacks, sabotage, espionage, disinformation, chemical weapons, and the expansion of its nuclear arsenal.
All of this is being carried out deliberately below the threshold of open armed conflict — in a way that does not give the West formal grounds for a symmetrical response. This is a cold calculation by a regime seeking to rewrite the rules of the global order in its favor.
Despite enormous losses in the war against Ukraine — more than 1.2 million killed and wounded — Russia continues to rearm and is preparing for a possible conflict with NATO. It is supported in this by China, which, under the guise of neutrality, supplies Moscow with technology and provides economic backing. Together they are forming an axis that openly challenges the liberal international order.
The Kremlin is also actively expanding its influence into the global periphery. In Africa, Moscow is systematically displacing Western influence by buying the loyalty of unstable regimes and cutting off access to strategic raw materials. This allows Russia to partially break out of international isolation and accumulate resources for further pressure on the West.
While Ukraine in the east is holding back Russia from a direct strike on NATO, the rest of the Kremlin’s operations continue without pause. And the scale of these operations in 2025 has only increased.
