Why can’t we give up Donbas?
Americans seem to think that ending the war in Ukraine is very simple: we just need to leave Donbas. In return, we would get peace, guarantees, and a golden shower of money. In reality, we cannot meet this demand. Here’s why.
- Moral defeat. Among the many reasons why we cannot withdraw, I put this factor first. By voluntarily leaving Donbas, we would effectively record a defeat in the war. This would be a colossal blow to the morale of the armed forces, which have fought valiantly for nearly five years. Any commander will tell you that the morale of a unit is key to its readiness to carry out combat missions. Surrendering territory when we have not been defeated would be a voluntary defeat.
Why is this bad? The war will not end even with a peace agreement. For us, Russia will remain a threat for decades, if not centuries. Therefore, rebuilding the country and maintaining effective armed forces will be a long-term task. If we suffer a voluntary defeat, the nation will lack the morale to resist over the long term.
Can we lose Donbas as a result of combat? Yes. And if the war in Iran does not end soon, it is most likely to happen this year. But this will not be a defeat, because defeat means the destruction of the armed forces. As long as our Armed Forces can fight and resist, we have not lost the war. As long as the country maintains its armed forces, it has not lost the war.
- Internal instability. I think that by demanding Donbas in a voluntary surrender format, Putin is betting on domestic political consequences. In reality, as a street-smart St. Petersburg guy, he wants to take Donbas by force, because getting it without a fight would prove that the Russian army cannot do it on its own. He knows that such a step by the Ukrainian authorities would be seen as a betrayal by Ukrainian military commanders, who are very unlikely to accept it. This would lead to internal instability and confrontation, potentially causing chaos and state collapse. Under such conditions, we would certainly lose Western support, and Putin could continue his “special military operation” without regard to any agreements.
- Legal impossibility of transferring Ukrainian territory. Our Constitution does not allow for the transfer of land. It also does not allow changes in this regard without a referendum. Therefore, conditional consent to withdraw from Donbas would require a “referendum” and probably even a new Constitution. This would require stopping hostilities, which Putin fundamentally refuses. Moreover, it is unlikely that the Ukrainian people would vote for it. Thus, the Ukrainian authorities cannot agree to such conditions today without effectively signing themselves up for imprisonment.
We are all very tired of the war. We all want it to end. But we cannot end it in a shameful defeat, because then this horror will become long-term. We cannot voluntarily end the war at the cost of our future.
Unfortunately, the war in Iran has broken the possibility of ending our war anytime soon. The New York Times wrote that in February, Putin’s economic situation was so critical that he seriously considered stopping the war along the front line. He will not do that now. But this does not change the fact that his economy is not getting stronger, and his population is not growing. Therefore, as soon as the oil price normalizes, he will return to the same position. And the price will eventually normalize, either because the Strait of Hormuz is unblocked, or the global economy goes into recession and doesn’t need as much oil.
Let’s hold on.
