In the 2025/26 marketing year, Ukraine will export 17.6 million tons of wheat, which is 11.5% more than the previous season.
This was reported by the association Ukrainian Agribusiness Club (UCAB).
Experts note that wheat production is gradually recovering: the results of the 2025/26 harvest campaign are estimated at 23.1 million tons, which is 2.9% higher than in the previous marketing year, but 6.2% lower than the five-year average.
UCAB also identified key insights for this crop in the current season:
- Increase in sown areas offsets weather challenges. The gross harvest was increased thanks to the expansion of sown areas to 5.1 million hectares (up 4.8% compared to the previous season). However, due to challenging weather conditions, the average wheat yield slightly decreased to 4.5 t/ha (1.7% lower than last year).
- Logistics and resumption of exports. In the 2024/25 marketing year, exports fell to 15.8 million tons (a drop of 15.1%). The main reason was the absence of carryover stocks at the start of the season, despite the establishment of exports via Ukraine’s own maritime routes. However, in 2025/26, the increase in the harvest will allow export volumes to rise to 17.6 million tons.
- Decline in domestic demand. Domestic wheat consumption in Ukraine continues to decrease due to the temporary occupation of some territories and the forced migration of the population because of hostilities. Total consumption in 2025/26 is estimated at 6.2 million tons, including about 3.7 million tons for food purposes and 1.5 million tons for feed. Grain used for seed will also decline, from 986 thousand tons to 825 thousand tons.
- The Ukrainian wheat market demonstrates adaptability. Despite demographic challenges and weather conditions, farmers are managing to expand sown areas.
"Domestic needs are fully met, and the successful operation of export channels allows for a renewed positive trend in shipments and ensures Ukraine’s stable presence in key markets in Europe, Africa, and Asia,” UCAB concluded.
